Beryl is not Hurricane Harvey, but the concern is it might be an Alicia

Update Friday July 5:

As we head into the weekend, I wanted to share a few thoughts with you. If you’re reading this late Saturday or even Sunday, you’re reading an outdated article.

The new information can be found at click2houston.com.

Beryl is not Hurricane Harvey:

There have been concerns that because Beryl could hit near Rockport, Texas, it could stall and cause catastrophic flooding like Harvey did in 2017. While Beryl could hit near Rockport, that would be the only similarity. In 2017, two high pressure systems, one in West Texas and the other near the Great Lakes, blocked Harvey.

On Monday the only common denominator will be high pressure near Florida. The other high pressure at higher levels is near California and a trough of low pressure is north of Texas.

This is not a blocking weather pattern. The trough and high can carry Beryl away from Texas. My biggest concern is that the trough and high will work together to bring Beryl closer to Houston.

Hurricane Alicia hit southeast Texas in 1983 as a Category 3 storm, causing incredible wind damage, comparable to the derecho in Houston two months earlier.

I’m worried that Beryl is getting stronger and may be heading straight for Southeast Texas!

Friday evening Beryl number:

The concern Friday night is that the landing path has shifted even further east. Matagorda Bay has the possibility of a direct hit from Beryl.

When you factor in the spaghetti tracks and the European model, you’re looking at a bull’s eye on Matagorda Bay.

Current watches in SE Texas:

Hurricane force winds are possible within the next 48 hours in the orange outlined area. Life threatening winds are possible in the orange colored areas.

There is also a storm surge warning in place with a possible storm surge of 3-5. The closer Beryl gets to us, the higher this level will be.

Houston and rain:

Much depends on Beryl’s ultimate path, but as it stands now, much of SE Texas could see about 5 inches of rain over the next five days. Flooding is possible. We’ll keep you updated.